*{Lessons from the First Age of Globalization [http://www.weforum.org/site/knowledgenavigator.nsf/Content/Lessons+from+the+First+Age+of+Globalization?open&topic_id=300250000&theme_id=300]

            27.01.2001

            Annual Meeting 2001}

            Some have argued that the first age of globalization began with the laying of the transatlantic cable and ended with the onset of the First World War. The panellists felt it was useful to consider the "unhappy ending" of the 1866-1914 years as a lesson for our times. Panel moderator Fareed Zakaria, Editor and Columnist, Newsweek International, USA, who produced this phrase to describe the World War I period, further argued, that "this time we must get the politics right."

            Alexandre Adler, Editorial Director, Courrier International, France, urged people to keep well in mind the social-political downsides of the pre-World War I era. He particularly drew attention to the development of conservative anti-capitalism which, in its various forms (nationalism, antisemitism, protectionism, etc.) ultimately destroyed the budding globalization.

            Paul Kennedy, Professor of History, Yale University, USA, said there were two mindsets in the pre-1914 era: homo economicus and homo militarus. (The former, it was later pointed out, is arguably the ancestor of "homo Davos".) The mindsets often clashed. On the eve of World War I, Lloyds of London informed a dismayed Royal Government that it fully intended to honour its contracts with the German Merchant Marine and pay off the latter’s losses even if they were incurred at the hands of the Royal Navy. Norman Angell’s best-seller of 1910, The Grand Illusion, he recalled, argued that war had become too expensive to be reasonable: the loser would be unable to pay reparations, so that the "winners" would not profit. Kennedy said that he saw something of this unrealistic mindset in current American military thinking. The Pentagon, he noted, cherishes the notion that it is possible to fight a "video game war" in which American soldiers need not die in battle.

            Luis Riveros, Rector of the University of Chile, Chile, also spoke up for the usefulness of studying the history of this era, warning participants that globalization could yet be derailed by a range of threats, notably the North-South war of haves against have-nots.

            Robert Wright, Columnist for Slate Magazine, USA, said there are "three suspects" threatening current globalization: income inequality within but especially among nations; the rapid rate of technological change, which has created a "cultural lag" in law and culture; and the impact of information technology, which has empowered the anti-globalization protest movement. Wright wondered if the present wave of nationalism in Europe was not worse than in 1914.

            Among the participants, Daniel Yergin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Associates, USA, showed concern about various threats to homo economicus, including a wide range of NGOs, and perhaps even to the nation-state. William Pfaff, the syndicated American political columnist, warned against the "liberal illusion" which holds that "we are all getting better". Joan Clos, Mayor of Barcelona, Spain, made a strong case for envisioning nationalism -- whether the pre-1914 vintage or the most recent variety -- as a political means for uniting the haves against the have-nots. Finally, Kennedy, reflecting on environmental fragility, offered the suggestion that "what is alarmingly new" is the fact that six billion people of the planet now have the capability of "harming themselves" terminally.                    

                  *{Contributors:       Adler Alexandre
                  Kennedy Paul M.
                  Riveros Luis
                  Wright Robert
                  Zakaria Fareed}